Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:22:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

11 0x115a…e4a6 other 22 markets active 1d ago coverage 75d ⚠

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 74d only

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$18,104 (-13%) realized +$18,134 · open −$36,238

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR69%break-even

Win rate92%12W / 1L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$6,228per market

Trades / day44.4pace

Fees−$1,683est.

Kalshi-fit24%portable

Net worth$46,091now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$50

7 days+$2,969

14 days+$3,985

30 days+$15,160

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +69%

net ROI/market (all)+7.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+23.1%	+11.4%	100%	75%	+7.0%
≤30d	12	+28.2%	+16.0%	100%	75%	+19.6%
≤90d	13	+18.3%	+7.0%	92%	69%	+19.6%
all	13	+18.3%	+7.0%	92%	69%	+19.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover44.4 tr/day

realistic slip~18%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+7.0%	69%	+19.6%
10%	-3.2%	38%	+8.1%
15% ← realistic here	-12.6%	31%	-2.3%
20%	-21.1%	15%	-11.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 72% · top 2 78% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +18% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +11% → late +25% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

108.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$1,263 vs −$5 · ×257.67 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3092.03 per $1 lost it wins $3092.03

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage

Net worth$46,091

Realized+$18,134

Unrealized−$36,238

Win rate (resolved)92%

Wins / losses12 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1,683

Open positions12

Markets (closed)13 / 22

History coverage75d ⚠

Avg bet$6,228

Trades / day44.4

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 12 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	16¢	8¢	$63,313	$33,907	−$29,406 (-46%)
Trump out as President before 2027?	Yes	15¢	10¢	$13,824	$8,611	−$5,213 (-38%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	6¢	4¢	$2,274	$1,545	−$729 (-32%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	8¢	6¢	$1,816	$1,220	−$596 (-33%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$352	$343	−$9 (-3%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$368	$292	−$76 (-21%)
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$90	$75	−$15 (-17%)
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$80	$70	−$10 (-12%)
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	3¢	1¢	$56	$13	−$43 (-77%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	14¢	1¢	$155	$13	−$142 (-92%)
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$2	$2	+$0 (+25%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$0	$0	−$0 (-37%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$700	+$50	+7%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 25	$1,200	+$460	+38%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 25	$310	+$200	+64%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$3,901	+$1,028	+26%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$3,030	+$230	+8%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$900	+$100	+11%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$2,630	+$484	+18%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$3,633	+$417	+12%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$1,114	+$1,016	+91%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 14	$1,060	+$110	+10%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$26,849	+$10,865	+40%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$1,800	+$200	+11%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?	May 01	$5	−$5	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	BUY Yes	9¢	$900	24h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	0¢	$750	35h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	4¢	$350	3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$10	3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$49	3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$68	3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	BUY Yes	6¢	$334	4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	BUY Yes	6¢	$17	4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$815	4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$308	4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$10	4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$98	4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$199	4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$1	4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$75	4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$295	4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$11	4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$1	4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$874	4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$30	4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$42	4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$210	4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$4	4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$30	4d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$100	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46,090.74 · official $46,090.74 (match) · 3500 history records