Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:46:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
11 0x1158…0dc0 other 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$47 (-1%) realized +$244 · open −$291
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +99% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +73% what you keep after slip
Net edge+73%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$4,154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$146
crypto 31% −$146
sports 1% +$130
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+80.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +99.2% +80.3% 50% 50% +174.5%
≤30d 2 +99.2% +80.3% 50% 50% +174.5%
≤90d 2 +99.2% +80.3% 50% 50% +174.5%
all 2 +99.2% +80.3% 50% 50% +174.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +80.3% 50% +174.5%
10% +63.0% 50% +148.2%
15% +47.3% 50% +124.2%
20% +32.8% 50% +102.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +203% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +99% · $-wt +203% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$130 vs −$6 · ×23.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×23.36 per $1 lost it wins $23.36
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$4,154
Realized+$244
Unrealized−$291
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)2 / 15
History coverage4d
Avg bet$324
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 17¢ 17¢ $1,870 $1,835 −$35 (-2%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 9¢ 8¢ $1,000 $849 −$151 (-15%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 7¢ 6¢ $750 $685 −$65 (-9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $450 $455 +$5 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $150 $117 −$33 (-22%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $29 −$21 (-43%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$6 -56%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Germany win on 2026 Jun 15 $51 +$130 +254%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $1,024 6m
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 10¢ $514 7m
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 7¢ $411 7m
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $102 40m
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $482 45m
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 9¢ $308 46m
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 6¢ $206 46m
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 15¢ $308 1h
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 10¢ $205 1h
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 6¢ $154 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? AND Will Argentina win on 202 BUY 16¢ $4 18h
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 22h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 22h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 31¢ $102 22h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 31h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 37h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY 9¢ $26 42h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Germany win on 2026 BUY 28¢ $51 43h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $154 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 30¢ $102 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $463 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,153.55 · official $4,153.55 (match) · 28 history records