Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:22:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1153…3de7 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,137 (-18%) realized −$2,190 · open +$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 31L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$3,633now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$397
7 days−$2,250
14 days−$2,250
30 days−$2,250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$2,178
sports 11% +$16
world 1% $0
crypto 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -30.0% -36.7% 26% 19% -34.1%
≤30d 42 -30.0% -36.7% 26% 19% -34.1%
≤90d 42 -30.0% -36.7% 26% 19% -34.1%
all 42 -30.0% -36.7% 26% 19% -34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.7% 19% -34.1%
10% -42.8% 19% -40.4%
15% -48.3% 17% -46.2%
20% -53.4% 12% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -38% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$111 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$3,633
Realized−$2,190
Unrealized+$53
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions13
Markets (closed)42 / 55
History coverage17d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 76¢ 80¢ $1,000 $1,059 +$59 (+6%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1,000 $992 −$8 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $1,000 $976 −$24 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 100¢ $50 $81 +$31 (+61%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 43¢ 38¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 −$41 -81%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,001 +$40 +4%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 −$3 -27%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$33 +33%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,013 +$418 +41%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$23 +227%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,120 −$82 -7%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$18 +177%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$94 -92%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,010 +$483 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 +$119 +291%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$7 +238%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,010 −$667 -66%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$18 -90%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -29%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,103 −$1,100 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 June 1-7? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $1,017 −$1,010 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 59¢ $102 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 8h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 20h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 27h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,001 27h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 27h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL Yes 70¢ $39 27h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $135 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 30h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $1,431 47h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $34 2d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 77¢ $28 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $8 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,633.02 · official $3,633.03 (match) · 86 history records