Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:16:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
11 0x1150…11d7 crypto 185 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,658 (+28%) realized +$2,664 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate53%90W / 79L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$534now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$109
14 days+$647
30 days+$539
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$34
other 44% +$2,315
sports 11% +$595
world 0% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -37.6% -43.6% 25% 25% -30.7%
≤30d 54 +53.5% +38.9% 44% 44% +9.8%
≤90d 112 +28.8% +16.5% 50% 41% +17.9%
all 169 +13.4% +2.6% 53% 43% +23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.6% 43% +23.7%
10% -7.2% 37% +11.8%
15% -16.2% 34% +1.0%
20% -24.4% 28% -8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$18 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.08 per $1 lost it wins $3.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$534
Realized+$2,664
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses90 / 79
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions5
Markets (closed)169 / 185
History coverage145d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $200 $179 −$21 (-11%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $138 +$38 (+38%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 59¢ 56¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $5 +$13 +262%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $20 +$20 +97%
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $82 +$91 +112%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $103 −$21 -21%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $30 +$14 +48%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$155 +152%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$20 +192%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $20 +$61 +299%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in Jun 22 $10 +$111 +1085%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 +$44 +425%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 +$115 +114%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 21 $10 +$77 +751%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 +$52 +510%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $25 +$47 +184%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $6 +$14 +221%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $66 +$48 +73%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$45 +90%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$92 +180%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$96 -94%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$42 -83%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$282 +276%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$32 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$52 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 59¢ $40 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Paraguay 27¢ $5 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 50¢ $20 8h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 57¢ $20 8h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 8h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06- BUY 24¢ $25 9h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 63¢ $173 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $82 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $82 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 8¢ $15 3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $45 3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $30 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals AND Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY 23¢ $16 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 21¢ $25 4d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 AND Wil BUY 14¢ $103 4d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 5d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND W BUY 8¢ $10 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 38¢ $51 6d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 41¢ $20 6d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 6d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 7d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 98¢ $82 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $533.87 · official $535.48 (match) · 394 history records