Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:20:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
11 0x114d…23e2 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,156 (+9%) realized +$1,156 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$2,583per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$1,040
sports 18% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -13.1% -21.4% 60% 40% -2.0%
≤30d 5 -13.1% -21.4% 60% 40% -2.0%
≤90d 5 -13.1% -21.4% 60% 40% -2.0%
all 5 -13.1% -21.4% 60% 40% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 40% -2.0%
10% ← realistic here -28.9% 20% -11.4%
15% -35.8% 0% -19.9%
20% -42.1% 0% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$519 vs −$239 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.25 per $1 lost it wins $3.25
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2,583
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,515 −$182 -12%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 28 $1,012 +$97 +10%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $1,018 +$238 +23%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $296 −$296 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $9,072 +$1,221 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 75¢ $1,333 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 84¢ $505 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 83¢ $1,010 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Colombia 84¢ $1,109 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 72¢ $1,256 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $1,018 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Colombia 75¢ $1,012 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $38 3h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $258 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $10,294 3h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $9,072 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records