Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:08:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
11 0x114b…98ba other 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 658d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%7W / 68L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$216per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% −$11
other 26% −$4
sports 2% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 7 +0.1% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.5%
all 75 -3.1% -12.3% 9% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

658d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses7 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage658d
Avg bet$216
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $54 $0 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $54 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $54 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $53 $0 +0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $55 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 03 $55 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 24 $55 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Feb 06 $54 $0 -0%
Will Tundu Lissu win the 2025 Tanzania presidential election? Nov 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brian Thomas Jr. win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tennessee win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Rams win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $3 $0 -0%
Will Alvin Kamara be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will MAGA reach $1b first? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will TRUMP reach $1b first? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hakeem Jeffries be the first elected Speaker of the House for the Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dalton Kincaid be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Josh Jacobs be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Elon Musk arrested in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Falcons win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 21 $1 $0 -2%
Germany confidence vote in 2024? Dec 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Riley Leonard win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 21 $2 $0 +0%
Democrats win popular vote by 3-4%? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the AFC South? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will Hillary Clinton attend presidential inauguration? Dec 10 $0 $0 -4%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Dec 10 $0 $0 -4%
Will the Denver Broncos win the AFC West? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Jaguars win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech? Nov 26 $0 $0 -5%
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in Assists? Nov 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Nov 22-29? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will ETH or SOL reach all-time high first? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 15h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 14d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 21d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 21d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 29d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 30d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 32d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 42d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 43d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 100¢ $55 64d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 100¢ $55 65d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 92d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 92d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 95d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 96d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 99¢ $55 98d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $16 99d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $38 99d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 103d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 103d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 104d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 105d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 105d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 106d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $55 106d
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $55 107d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $55 114d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $55 130d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records