Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:57:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x114a…7ca1 other 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 373d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%7W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$2
other 37% −$5
sports 8% −$1
culture 6% −$1
world 4% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.0% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.4%
all 72 -4.3% -13.5% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

373d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses7 / 65
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage373d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? No 96¢ 96¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $68 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $71 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 14 $68 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 30 $69 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 27? Jan 27 $69 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 24 $141 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 22 $69 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $69 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 11 $70 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 09 $69 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $69 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 02 $69 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 31 $71 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $68 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $71 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 19 $68 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 15 $139 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 12 $137 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 10 $68 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 05 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 01 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 28 $68 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 26 $71 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $72 $0 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 21 $221 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 19 $69 $0 +0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 15 $72 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 12 $142 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 09 $72 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 09 $1 $0 -33%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $69 $0 +0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 04 $69 $0 -0%
Will Brad Lander win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 01 $70 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 20 $72 $0 -0%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 17 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $73 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 08 $73 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 01 $143 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 29 $72 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 27 $73 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 25 $72 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 22 $1 $0 -33%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $72 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 20 $71 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $1 $0 -20%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Sep 08 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 25 $71 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $69 1h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 3d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $71 18d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 36d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 112d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $71 116d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $71 138d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $69 140d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $69 142d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 27? BUY No 100¢ $69 144d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 146d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 147d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $69 148d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $69 151d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $70 152d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $70 153d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $69 153d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $69 157d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $70 159d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $70 161d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $69 161d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $69 164d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $69 165d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $69 166d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $69 168d
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $69 170d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $71 170d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $71 174d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 175d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.87 · official $68.87 (match) · 376 history records