Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:44:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x113e…421a crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$95 (-13%) realized −$94 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%15W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day65.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$80
sports 6% $0
other 4% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-38.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -31.8% -38.3% 37% 34% -22.8%
≤30d 41 -31.8% -38.3% 37% 34% -22.8%
≤90d 41 -31.8% -38.3% 37% 34% -22.8%
all 41 -31.8% -38.3% 37% 34% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.3% 34% -22.8%
10% ← realistic here -44.2% 32% -30.2%
15% -49.6% 27% -37.0%
20% -54.5% 17% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized−$94
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses15 / 26
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)41 / 44
History coverage6d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day65.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-2%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$20 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$8 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $34 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET Jun 20 $28 +$11 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $18 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$7 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$13 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $27 +$16 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $38 +$15 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$18 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin above 64,600 on June 16, 6AM ET? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$14 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$13 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$14 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$10 -67%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$5 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$5 -21%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$5 -61%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$3 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $35 23m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.74 · official $85.75 (match) · 394 history records