Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:08:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

11
0x1137…d2d3
sports · 675 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$33 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$33 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses200 / 453
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions22
Markets (closed)653 / 675
History coverage195d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 22 History 653 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 56¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Las Vegas Aces 55¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 40¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 47¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Under 55¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Under 53¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Over 55¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Golden Knights 70¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 51¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Knicks 68¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Under 60¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on May 1? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Pisa SC win on 2026-05-01? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 1? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IF Gnistan win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $1 +$1 +129%
Will FC Lahti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +64%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $3 +$1 +34%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kuopion Palloseura win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Barbora Krejcikova vs. Magda Linette: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1 $0 -4%
Will Rio Ave FC vs. Gil Vicente FC end in a draw? May 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C or higher on May 4? May 03 $0 $0 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on May 4? May 03 $1 $0 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 3? May 03 $0 $0 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 03 $2 $0 -11%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 03 $1 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 4? May 03 $1 $0 -21%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jason Perry win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral electi May 03 $1 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 03 $2 $0 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Liam Shrivastava win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral May 03 $1 $0 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 03 $5 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 03 $12 −$1 -7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 03 $7 $0 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 03 $8 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 4? May 03 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 4? May 03 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 4? May 03 $1 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 03 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on May 3? May 03 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on May 3? May 03 $1 $0 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on May 3? May 03 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 3? May 03 $1 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 3? May 03 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Ma May 02 $1 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $1 $0 -2%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on May 3? May 02 $6 −$3 -62%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 02 $1 $0 -7%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1 $0 -7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 02 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 3? May 02 $8 −$4 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 3? May 02 $7 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 71% +$37
crypto 16% −$8
other 7% −$22
weather 4% −$32
world 2% −$4
politics 0% −$4
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $1 13m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 60¢ $1 1h
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 70¢ $1 1h
Will FC Lahti win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 74¢ $2 1h
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti SELL Roberto Carballes Baena 89¢ $4 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 0¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic BUY Iva Jovic 57¢ $1 2h
Will IF Gnistan win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 3h
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 43¢ $1 3h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 3h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 47¢ $1 4h
Will FC Lahti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 4h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 56¢ $3 4h
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova BUY Darja Vidmanova 30¢ $1 5h
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic BUY Katie Boulter 52¢ $1 5h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 33¢ $1 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 5h
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel BUY Taro Daniel 61¢ $1 5h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 5h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY Las Vegas Aces 55¢ $1 5h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 5h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 5h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 40¢ $1 5h
Will Kuopion Palloseura win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 5h
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel BUY Dane Sweeny 69¢ $1 7h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 38¢ $0 7h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 8h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $2 10h
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 66¢ $3 14h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +0.9% -8.8% 62% 62% -10.2%
≤30d 13 +0.9% -8.8% 62% 62% -10.2%
≤90d 608 -17.5% -25.4% 27% 23% -21.3%
all 653 -12.8% -21.1% 31% 26% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 26% -10.6%
10% -28.7% 24% -19.2%
15% -35.6% 20% -27.0%
20% -41.9% 18% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.12 · official $25.13 (match) · 2202 history records