Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:47:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
11 0x1137…4ed5 crypto 847 markets active 6h ago coverage 176d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 175d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$367 (+0%) realized +$540 · open −$173
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate66%523W / 274L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$7,170now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 176d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$4,558
other 19% +$928
world 14% −$1,026
finance 3% −$740
tech 2% +$567
politics 1% −$171
economics 0% −$75
sports 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -6.4% -15.3% 60% 33% -13.5%
≤30d 181 -4.2% -13.3% 66% 35% -13.8%
≤90d 433 -6.7% -15.6% 66% 31% -12.1%
all 797 -2.9% -12.2% 66% 30% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 30% -7.2%
10% -20.6% 16% -16.1%
15% -28.2% 9% -24.2%
20% -35.3% 7% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$60 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$7,170
Realized+$540
Unrealized−$173
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses523 / 274
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions50
Markets (closed)797 / 847
History coverage176d ⚠
Avg bet$203
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 797 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 72¢ 82¢ $1,000 $1,152 +$152 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 58¢ 44¢ $660 $492 −$168 (-25%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 88¢ 99¢ $300 $339 +$39 (+13%)
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 94¢ 99¢ $300 $317 +$17 (+6%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 74¢ $373 $312 −$61 (-16%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $300 $308 +$8 (+3%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? No 95¢ 97¢ $300 $305 +$5 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 85¢ 96¢ $250 $280 +$30 (+12%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 81¢ 99¢ $225 $275 +$50 (+22%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 80¢ 98¢ $200 $244 +$44 (+22%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 60¢ $297 $235 −$62 (-21%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? No 92¢ 69¢ $300 $225 −$75 (-25%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June? No 90¢ 98¢ $200 $219 +$19 (+9%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June? No 91¢ 99¢ $200 $217 +$17 (+9%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 92¢ 99¢ $200 $215 +$15 (+8%)
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $217 $199 −$18 (-8%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? No 91¢ 90¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? No 87¢ 86¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 83¢ 92¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 90¢ 97¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 84¢ 90¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21? No 94¢ 98¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 71¢ 33¢ $200 $93 −$107 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 16 $20 −$8 -40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 16 $36 −$34 -94%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 16 $16 −$10 -65%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 16 $25 −$6 -23%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 16 $201 −$172 -86%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Jun 16 $151 −$53 -35%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Jun 16 $151 −$48 -32%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? Jun 16 $201 +$27 +14%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 16 $200 +$13 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 15 $200 −$131 -66%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $20 −$14 -68%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $500 −$272 -54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $138 −$6 -5%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 15 $56 +$6 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $157 +$21 +13%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $251 +$20 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $127 +$9 +7%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 8-14? Jun 15 $50 +$5 +9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $300 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 13 $51 −$46 -90%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Jun 13 $50 +$2 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $200 +$11 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $301 +$33 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $151 +$22 +15%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $201 +$62 +31%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $201 +$26 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $127 +$41 +32%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $252 +$32 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $102 +$67 +66%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? Jun 11 $301 +$12 +4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in June? Jun 11 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 11 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -79%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 11 $61 +$35 +58%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 11 $471 +$4 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? Jun 10 $50 +$10 +19%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Jun 10 $200 +$19 +10%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? Jun 10 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 10 $51 +$35 +68%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? Jun 10 $350 −$38 -11%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 8-14? Jun 10 $150 +$5 +3%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in June? Jun 10 $52 +$158 +306%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 in June? Jun 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 8-14? Jun 09 $51 +$13 +25%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 09 $100 +$9 +9%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 09 $21 +$11 +55%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 08 $201 −$54 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY No 86¢ $50 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 9h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 69¢ $19 9h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? SELL No 12¢ $29 9h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? SELL No 60¢ $98 9h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 73¢ $146 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 78¢ $104 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 78¢ $40 18h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 21h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 6¢ $5 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 78¢ $12 21h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? BUY No 94¢ $100 22h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? BUY No 89¢ $100 22h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL No 79¢ $88 22h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 22h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? SELL No 95¢ $229 22h
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 22h
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $416 22h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 89¢ $69 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $20 22h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $213 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 83¢ $51 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $100 23h
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 23h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 23h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 15-21? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,170.49 · official $7,174.28 (match) · 3500 history records