Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

11
0x1135…d15e
weather · 675 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$1,034 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,016 · open +$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6,470
Realized+$1,016
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses553 / 15
Open positions107
Markets (closed)568 / 675
History coverage9d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day330.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 107 History 568 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$129
7 days+$498
14 days+$1,016
30 days+$1,016
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? No 95¢ 100¢ $160 $167 +$8 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? No 96¢ 98¢ $160 $164 +$4 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? No 96¢ 97¢ $150 $152 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? No 95¢ 97¢ $140 $143 +$4 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? No 96¢ 98¢ $140 $143 +$3 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? No 96¢ 95¢ $140 $139 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 14? No 96¢ 98¢ $133 $137 +$4 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? No 95¢ 76¢ $160 $129 −$31 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? No 96¢ 96¢ $129 $128 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13? No 95¢ 100¢ $120 $126 +$6 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $120 $124 +$5 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $120 $124 +$4 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 13? No 95¢ 91¢ $129 $123 −$6 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 13? No 95¢ 99¢ $113 $118 +$4 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $112 $117 +$5 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? No 95¢ 96¢ $115 $116 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? No 96¢ 93¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? No 95¢ 100¢ $91 $95 +$5 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? No 95¢ 100¢ $90 $95 +$5 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? No 94¢ 99¢ $80 $84 +$4 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $77 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $64 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 86°F or higher on Jun Jun 13 $109 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 13 $129 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 12? Jun 13 $40 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $62 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 13 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $122 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 12? Jun 13 $57 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 36°C on June 12? Jun 13 $11 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 13 $64 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $84 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $70 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 13 $98 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 13 $57 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $160 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $80 +$5 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $80 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $57 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $103 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $52 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $58 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $28 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $44 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 12? Jun 12 $80 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $80 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $42 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $140 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $148 +$7 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $80 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 12 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$1,034
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $5 39m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $49 41m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $5 41m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $8 41m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $36 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $32 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June BUY No 97¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $57 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June BUY No 97¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 83°F or below on June BUY No 97¢ $32 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $60 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 98¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $29 5h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $58 6h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $22 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $17 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $58 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $80 6h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $9 7h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $4 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 513 +1.5% -8.1% 98% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 568 +3.4% -6.5% 97% 2% -6.8%
≤90d 568 +3.4% -6.5% 97% 2% -6.8%
all 568 +3.4% -6.5% 97% 2% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover330.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 2% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 2% -15.7%
15% -23.6% 2% -23.9%
20% -31.1% 2% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,470.00 · official $6,474.97 (match) · 3500 history records