Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:58:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1134…572a other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$309 (-13%) realized −$309 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate22%8W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day93.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$335
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -20.5% -28.1% 22% 19% +5.3%
≤30d 36 -20.5% -28.1% 22% 19% +5.3%
≤90d 36 -20.5% -28.1% 22% 19% +5.3%
all 36 -20.5% -28.1% 22% 19% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.1% 19% +5.3%
10% ← realistic here -35.0% 19% -4.8%
15% -41.2% 11% -14.0%
20% -47.0% 11% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$18 · ×5.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$309
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses8 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage1d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day93.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $304 +$473 +155%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $82 +$63 +77%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $82 +$18 +22%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $72 −$5 -7%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $82 +$67 +82%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $71 −$9 -12%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $386 +$103 +27%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $21 −$5 -25%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 20 $60 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $203 −$82 -41%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $134 −$70 -52%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $31 −$5 -17%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $4 −$3 -72%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $72 −$35 -48%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $51 −$14 -27%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $74 −$43 -58%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $51 −$9 -17%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -8%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $59 −$44 -75%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $55 −$18 -32%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $132 +$37 +28%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $41 −$11 -27%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $46 −$13 -29%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $15 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $38 −$29 -76%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 +$67 +649%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -47%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$7 -67%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 99¢ $777 52m
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 57m
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 29¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 28¢ $115 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes 8¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 27¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? SELL Yes 7¢ $67 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 21¢ $149 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? SELL Yes 12¢ $63 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $41 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $62 3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $62 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 99¢ $72 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 84¢ $25 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 44¢ $84 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? SELL Yes 5¢ $14 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records