Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:21:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1132…62a8 other 47 markets active 3h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate35%16W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% $0
other 23% $0
politics 21% +$2
economics 8% −$2
sports 8% $0
crypto 7% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.0% -13.1% 33% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 9 -2.2% -11.5% 44% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 11 -2.1% -11.4% 36% 0% -9.7%
all 46 -0.5% -9.9% 35% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses16 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage285d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $32 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $33 $0 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $37 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $1 $0 -20%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $47 +$2 +4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $36 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $32 −$1 -3%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 29 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $16 $0 +2%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 28 $61 −$2 -2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 27 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 27 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Sep 26 $29 $0 +2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 24 $14 +$1 +8%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? Sep 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 24 $15 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 22 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $13 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 21 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 21 $2 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Sep 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 17 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Sep 16 $29 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 14 $27 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in September? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $33 2h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $35 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $35 4h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $11 13h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 90¢ $22 13h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 92¢ $33 16h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 19h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $32 25h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $23 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $10 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 33h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 87¢ $36 34h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $37 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $33 29d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $33 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $34 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $23 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $28 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $4 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $32 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $35 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $36 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $32 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $32 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $36 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $36 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.67 · official $32.67 (match) · 138 history records