trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 13 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 31% | 8% | -8.8% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 31% | 8% | -8.8% |
| all | 31 | -4.2% | -13.3% | 35% | 10% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.3% | 10% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -21.6% | 6% | -18.4% |
| 15% | -29.2% | 3% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -36.1% | 0% | -33.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 16¢ | 14¢ | $25 | $21 | −$4 (-16%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 18 | $51 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 17 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 08 | $101 | $0 | +0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | Jun 08 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 06 | $37 | −$2 | -5% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 05 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 04 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Jun 01 | $2 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | May 28 | $58 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | May 28 | $43 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 27 | $52 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 27 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 26 | $43 | +$5 | +12% |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 09 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 24 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | May 20 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 2–9? | May 10 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 14-21? | Mar 21 | $8 | −$2 | -31% |
| DePaul vs. Providence | Mar 04 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Senators vs. Blackhawks | Mar 04 | $13 | −$6 | -44% |
| Will Trump say 'mandate' 5+ times times during the 2025 State of the U | Mar 04 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Jazz vs. Wizards | Mar 04 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Rutgers vs. Purdue | Mar 03 | $11 | −$2 | -20% |
| Central Michigan vs. Ball State | Mar 03 | $16 | −$2 | -11% |
| Will Bournemouth win on 2025-02-25? | Mar 03 | $13 | +$5 | +41% |
| Baylor vs. Cincinnati | Feb 25 | $13 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on February | Feb 25 | $15 | −$2 | -13% |
| Wyoming vs. Nevada | Feb 24 | $14 | +$1 | +6% |
| Bellarmine vs. Stetson | Feb 24 | $11 | +$4 | +32% |
| Will Auburn win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Feb 24 | $10 | $0 | +0% |