Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

11
0x1130…b304
other · 41 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$9 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$14 · open −$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$37
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses23 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)31 / 41
History coverage100d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 10 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-9%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 54¢ 50¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 42¢ 21¢ $5 $3 −$3 (-48%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 98¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+58%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $14 +$1 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 01 $12 +$2 +21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? Jun 01 $8 +$2 +21%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $4 $0 +8%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 22 $15 +$4 +29%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $8 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 14 $6 +$1 +12%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 02 $4 +$1 +35%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? May 02 $6 $0 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Apr 04 $16 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 04 $6 $0 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 04 $10 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 04 $6 $0 +5%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 04 $6 +$2 +33%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 19 $6 +$1 +9%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 19 $6 +$2 +34%
Will Sinners win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 19 $10 $0 +4%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Mar 15 $1 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 38% −$3
finance 20% +$5
economics 15% −$3
politics 9% +$5
culture 8% +$3
tech 6% +$2
sports 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $11 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $11 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $0 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $11 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $11 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $11 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 83¢ $7 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 13d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $0 13d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 80¢ $8 13d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 32¢ $2 13d
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? BUY No 82¢ $8 23d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $14 23d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 23d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL No 89¢ $4 23d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 62¢ $7 31d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $7 31d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $7 31d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 31d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 31d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 +13.6% +2.8% 64% 36% -2.5%
≤90d 30 +7.0% -3.2% 73% 30% -4.8%
all 31 +7.4% -2.8% 74% 32% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 32% -4.8%
10% -12.1% 16% -13.9%
15% -20.6% 3% -22.2%
20% -28.4% 3% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.93 · official $35.50 · 141 history records