Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:20:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x112c…9295 world 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$3
other 12% +$15
crypto 10% −$2
sports 7% $0
politics 5% $0
weather 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.5% -9.9% 33% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 15 +2.6% -7.2% 33% 7% -10.3%
≤90d 15 +2.6% -7.2% 33% 7% -10.3%
all 33 +41.9% +28.4% 48% 6% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.4% 6% -7.8%
10% +16.1% 6% -16.6%
15% +4.9% 6% -24.7%
20% -5.4% 6% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +84% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage469d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $26 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $26 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $26 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $26 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $27 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $38 −$1 -4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $30 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $27 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $14 −$1 -6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $11 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on June 3? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 19 $17 $0 -1%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2024-25 FA Cup? May 18 $1 +$16 +1349%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $11 $0 +4%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 07 $15 −$3 -17%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 05 $15 $0 -0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 02 $15 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 27 $16 $0 +2%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 19 $11 −$1 -5%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on March 8? Mar 11 $16 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $29 9m
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 27h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $7 37h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $4 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $4 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $14 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $25 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $26 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $26 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $15 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $11 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $26 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $27 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 68¢ $10 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 68¢ $16 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $17 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $4 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $7 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $15 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $26 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $26 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $27 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $6 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 100 history records