Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:56:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x112a…be90 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$207 (-21%) realized −$205 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$263
sports 9% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -1.2% -10.6% 54% 54% -34.8%
≤30d 13 -1.2% -10.6% 54% 54% -34.8%
≤90d 13 -1.2% -10.6% 54% 54% -34.8%
all 13 -1.2% -10.6% 54% 54% -34.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 54% -34.8%
10% -19.1% 31% -41.0%
15% -27.0% 23% -46.7%
20% -34.1% 23% -52.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$59 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized−$205
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)13 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $83 $83 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 +$2 +188%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $201 +$32 +16%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 +$12 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $51 +$30 +60%
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $50 +$8 +16%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $23 +$4 +19%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 +$54 +262%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $12 −$12 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $83 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 13h
Norway vs. France: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $50 29h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $51 29h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $51 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 39h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $23 2d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $81 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 83¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.24 · official $232.08 (match) · 24 history records