Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:32:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
11 0x1128…f1e1 other 108 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 92L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$23
politics 24% −$6
economics 7% −$1
sports 4% +$36
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 106 +1.5% -8.2% 13% 8% -9.5%
all 106 +1.5% -8.2% 13% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 8% -9.5%
10% -17.0% 8% -18.2%
15% -25.0% 8% -26.1%
20% -32.4% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 92
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)106 / 108
History coverage90d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $142 $142 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $47 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $33 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $33 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 05 $91 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $236 $0 -0%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $40 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $41 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $203 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $209 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $218 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 08 $223 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $215 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $203 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $415 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $204 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $211 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 03 $211 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $221 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 27 $205 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $390 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 19 $420 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $211 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $223 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $218 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $224 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $433 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $435 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $216 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $228 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $217 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $225 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $217 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $227 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $214 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $397 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $388 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 22m
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 21h
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? BUY No 100¢ $34 22h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 22h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $142 2d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $47 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $47 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 13d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 14d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 14d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 22d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $49 23d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $3 23d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $12 23d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $24 23d
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $40 23d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $41 25d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 25d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 28d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 28d
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $91 28d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 29d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.30 · official $175.30 (match) · 282 history records