Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:00:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

11 0x1122…1d0e sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$84 (+17%) realized +$84 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip

Net edge+13%after slip

Net WR64%break-even

Win rate64%14W / 8L

Drawdown78%max

Avg bet$20per market

Trades / day6.5pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit64%portable

Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +64%

net ROI/market (all)+17.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	+29.8%	+17.5%	64%	64%	+7.8%
≤30d	22	+29.8%	+17.5%	64%	64%	+7.8%
≤90d	22	+29.8%	+17.5%	64%	64%	+7.8%
all	22	+29.8%	+17.5%	64%	64%	+7.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+17.5%	64%	+7.8%
10%	+6.2%	64%	-2.5%
15%	-4.0%	59%	-11.9%
20%	-13.4%	41%	-20.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +30% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +55% → late +4% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$16 vs −$17 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$34

Realized+$84

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses14 / 8

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions3

Markets (closed)22 / 25

History coverage6d

Avg bet$20

Trades / day6.5

Drawdown78%

Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$16	$16	−$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	57¢	56¢	$12	$12	−$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Portugal	51¢	52¢	$6	$6	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Jun 17	$9	+$11	+124%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$22	+$9	+41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$15	+$7	+44%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$10	+$7	+72%
Spread: Austria (-2.5)	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$15	+$8	+50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$5	+$11	+216%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-99%
Spread: Spain (-4.5)	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Jun 15	$12	−$12	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$15	−$15	-100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5)	Jun 15	$8	+$21	+262%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$20	+$16	+78%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	Jun 15	$10	−$8	-80%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$12	−$12	-99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$10	+$9	+90%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$7	+$9	+126%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$31	+$48	+157%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5	Jun 12	$15	+$16	+103%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 12	$31	+$9	+29%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 12	$71	−$68	-96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$111	+$46	+42%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$31	54m
Spread: Austria (-2.5)	BUY Austria	23¢	$5	5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$12	5h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	51¢	$6	5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$16	5h
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Austria	44¢	$9	5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$22	5h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	SELL Argentina	51¢	$6	5h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	31¢	$5	19h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	43¢	$10	19h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5	BUY Under	68¢	$10	19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$15	21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$15	21h
Spread: Spain (-4.5)	BUY Spain	19¢	$10	2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	BUY Spain	34¢	$12	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$15	2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5)	SELL Sweden	100¢	$30	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	94¢	$36	2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	SELL Yes	6¢	$2	2d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5)	BUY Sweden	27¢	$8	2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	57¢	$12	2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	29¢	$10	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$20	2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	52¢	$10	3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5	BUY Under	44¢	$0	3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5	BUY Under	44¢	$4	3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5	BUY Under	44¢	$3	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	97¢	$79	5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5	SELL Over	99¢	$31	5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5	BUY Over	48¢	$15	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.85 · official $33.85 (match) · 44 history records