Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:23:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
11 0x1121…4931 sports 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,600 (-12%) realized −$3,548 · open −$52
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,950per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$164est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$3,860now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$618
sports 33% −$4,273
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -23.3% -30.6% 50% 25% -22.3%
≤30d 4 -23.3% -30.6% 50% 25% -22.3%
≤90d 4 -23.3% -30.6% 50% 25% -22.3%
all 4 -23.3% -30.6% 50% 25% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.6% 25% -22.3%
10% ← realistic here -37.2% 25% -29.7%
15% -43.3% 25% -36.5%
20% -48.9% 25% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,342 vs −$3,144 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$3,860
Realized−$3,548
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$164
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4,950
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? No 32¢ 32¢ $2,368 $2,331 −$37 (-2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 52¢ $1,543 $1,529 −$15 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $17,345 +$655 +4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2,401 −$2,361 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $3,999 −$3,927 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1,970 +$2,030 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $1,566 6m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 32¢ $2,416 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $3,860 4h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $5,773 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $7,713 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $2,401 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $1,678 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 39¢ $2,321 26h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 48¢ $975 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $995 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,859.52 · official $3,859.52 (match) · 12 history records