Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:44:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
11 0x111d…8791 sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 626d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$62 (+2%) realized +$63 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,041now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$22
politics 28% −$5
sports 11% +$87
crypto 2% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 +27.2% +15.1% 33% 33% -9.3%
all 33 -17.8% -25.6% 36% 18% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 18% -7.5%
10% -32.7% 18% -16.4%
15% -39.2% 18% -24.4%
20% -45.2% 18% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$9 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

626d coverage
Net worth$1,041
Realized+$63
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage626d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $532 $532 −$0 (-0%)
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $510 $510 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,055 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Kings vs. Capitals Apr 06 $9 +$7 +82%
Knicks vs. Heat Nov 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Warriors vs. Spurs Nov 17 $9 +$12 +133%
Capitals vs. Hurricanes Nov 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Nov 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Bucks vs. Mavericks Nov 11 $11 +$9 +82%
Rockets vs. Spurs Nov 10 $9 +$12 +133%
Spread: BAL (-4.5) Sep 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? Jul 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will Marek Jakubiak be the next President of Poland? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Na Kyung-won be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? May 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $5 $0 -1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 25 $4 $0 -1%
Panthers vs. Avalanche Jan 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Senators vs. Blues Jan 05 $102 +$102 +100%
Will Liverpool lead the EPL in points at midway point? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Utah vs. Flames Jan 03 $111 +$99 +89%
Tether Insolvent in 2024? Jan 02 $21 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Jan 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? Jan 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 02 $24 $0 +0%
Ethena crash in 2024? Jan 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will there be less than 130,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. Presidentia Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Who will speak more at VP Debate? Oct 02 $19 −$19 -100%
草莓软糖是男人还是女人 (man or woman)? Oct 01 $20 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $510 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $532 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,054 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,055 12h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,044 12h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,045 19h
Kings vs. Capitals BUY Capitals 55¢ $9 212d
Knicks vs. Heat BUY Knicks 48¢ $13 212d
Warriors vs. Spurs BUY Warriors 43¢ $9 215d
Capitals vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $15 218d
Maple Leafs vs. Bruins BUY Maple Leafs 57¢ $12 218d
Bucks vs. Mavericks BUY Bucks 55¢ $11 219d
Rockets vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 43¢ $9 222d
Spread: BAL (-4.5) BUY BAL 51¢ $7 268d
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Texans 57¢ $6 275d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $4 359d
Will Marek Jakubiak be the next President of Poland? BUY Yes $1 399d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? SELL No 99¢ $5 401d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 401d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? SELL No 98¢ $6 405d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 99¢ $6 405d
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? BUY Yes $1 406d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? SELL No 100¢ $6 407d
Will Na Kyung-won be elected the next president of South Korea? BUY Yes $1 407d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 407d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 98¢ $5 408d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 98¢ $5 408d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 94¢ $5 413d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 94¢ $5 413d
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? SELL Yes 77¢ $4 418d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,041.48 · official $1,041.48 (match) · 63 history records