Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:52:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x111c…df24 world 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate23%9W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 25% −$1
politics 19% −$1
sports 18% $0
other 15% $0
crypto 11% −$1
finance 4% $0
tech 4% $0
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.1% -7.6% 43% 14% -8.9%
≤30d 11 -6.5% -15.4% 36% 9% -9.3%
≤90d 11 -6.5% -15.4% 36% 9% -9.3%
all 39 -3.4% -12.6% 23% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 3% -9.8%
10% -20.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses9 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage285d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 57¢ 56¢ $31 $31 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $49 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $6 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $3 $0 +11%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $16 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Jan 31 $2 $0 -19%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $24 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 26 $9 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 26 $9 $0 -1%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Sep 18 $1 $0 -6%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $2 $0 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 10 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 09 $16 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 57¢ $31 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $34 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $34 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $10 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $12 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $8 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $6 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $6 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 72¢ $30 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $30 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $30 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $31 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $7 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $24 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.52 · official $30.52 (match) · 158 history records