Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:49:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x111a…12c3 sports 16 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9,061 (-7%) realized −$9,061 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,666per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$1,070est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$8,018
other 23% −$17,679
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -11.4% -19.8% 57% 50% -17.9%
≤30d 14 -11.4% -19.8% 57% 50% -17.9%
≤90d 14 -11.4% -19.8% 57% 50% -17.9%
all 14 -11.4% -19.8% 57% 50% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 50% -17.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 36% -25.8%
15% -34.5% 29% -32.9%
20% -40.9% 21% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3,942 vs −$6,866 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,061
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1,070
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7,666
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $9,925 −$9,729 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10,107 −$10,000 -99%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3,022 +$978 +32%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $11,631 +$1,117 +10%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $7,071 +$3,500 +50%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2,019 −$2,000 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10,042 +$1,586 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5,087 +$6,818 +134%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $7,064 −$7,000 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $11,475 +$10,903 +95%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $8,847 +$1,845 +21%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11,055 −$11,000 -100%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $1,488 −$1,465 -98%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $5,742 +$4,786 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $744 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1,020 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1,020 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1,020 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1,020 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1,020 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1,020 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1,020 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1,020 39h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1,020 39h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $10,107 40h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY 58¢ $7,290 42h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 91¢ $1,604 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 91¢ $1,003 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 91¢ $1,003 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 91¢ $1,003 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 91¢ $1,003 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 91¢ $1,003 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 91¢ $1,003 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 91¢ $1,003 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 91¢ $1,003 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 91¢ $1,003 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 91¢ $1,003 2d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 68¢ $1,010 2d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 68¢ $1,010 2d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 75¢ $3,022 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 66¢ $1,010 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 66¢ $1,010 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 66¢ $1,010 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 66¢ $1,010 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records