Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:45:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x111a…aceb crypto 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (169 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$694 (+32%) realized +$660 · open +$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%26W / 52L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day168.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$201
other 11% +$64
sports 2% +$12
world 1% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (169 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +20.6% +9.1% 33% 32% +5.3%
≤30d 78 +20.6% +9.1% 33% 32% +5.3%
≤90d 78 +20.6% +9.1% 33% 32% +5.3%
all 78 +20.6% +9.1% 33% 32% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover168.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.1% 32% +5.3%
10% ← realistic here -1.4% 32% -4.7%
15% -10.9% 32% -13.9%
20% -19.6% 31% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$17 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$660
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses26 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)78 / 88
History coverage2d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day168.6
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 26¢ 88¢ $13 $44 +$31 (+237%)
Raphinha: 1+ goals Yes 49¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 10¢ 56¢ $3 $16 +$13 (+439%)
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Yes 53¢ 51¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Yes 25¢ 17¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-31%)
Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals Yes 33¢ 18¢ $15 $8 −$7 (-45%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? No 9¢ 19¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+113%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+65%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-62%)
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$101 +634%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $61 −$24 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$17 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$43 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $36 −$12 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $43 −$41 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $36 +$124 +345%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $63 −$24 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $43 −$29 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $36 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $41 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$36 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$12 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $30 −$12 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$89 +561%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $30 +$42 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $50 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $28 +$74 +260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $18 +$28 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $23 +$70 +303%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $23 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $75 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $23 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 19 $48 −$22 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$41 +260%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 19 $39 −$22 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $63 −$39 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $28 +$87 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 18 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$36 +676%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $28 −$7 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$18 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $30 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $22 +$13 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $117 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $13 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $12 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $143 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $13 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $13 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $13 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $13 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $12 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $13 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $13 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.08 · official $126.29 (match) · 296 history records