Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:28:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1118…7564 other 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate27%19W / 52L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$6
world 28% −$6
politics 25% +$1
tech 3% −$3
sports 1% −$4
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
weather 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 9 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 22 +0.5% -9.1% 18% 5% -9.7%
all 71 -3.2% -12.4% 27% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 3% -9.8%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses19 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage486d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 86¢ 86¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $83 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $92 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $48 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $88 −$4 -5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $141 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $89 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $98 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $107 −$3 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $59 −$3 -4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 19 $24 +$5 +20%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $564 +$1 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 13 $1 $0 +9%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $563 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $7 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $32 −$1 -4%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $563 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $620 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $293 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $2 $0 -0%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $37 +$1 +3%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 16 $7 $0 -4%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during his 250th Army Anniversary re Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $6 $0 -2%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 04 $6 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 45% and 47% of the vote in the South Ko Jun 03 $6 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele Jun 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 02 $2 $0 +22%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? May 31 $4 $0 -11%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 31 $6 $0 +3%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? May 31 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 30 $69 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in Epstein files? May 30 $29 $0 -0%
1,200+ Measles cases in U.S. before June? May 30 $29 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 30 $32 $0 +0%
Will Sebastian Korda win the 2025 French Open? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? May 29 $33 $0 -0%
Will another driver finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 29 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 28 $36 $0 +1%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend? May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 27 $5 −$1 -18%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 French Open? May 27 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $42 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $83 4h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $42 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $41 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $48 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 38h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $16 44h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 46h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $35 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $37 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $12 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $84 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $23 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $30 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $39 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $92 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $16 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $16 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $83 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $88 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $58 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $58 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $53 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $53 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $87 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $87 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.14 · official $40.42 (match) · 227 history records