Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:05:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1117…05c7 world 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$88 (+2%) realized +$88 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate42%35W / 48L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$11
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$19
other 31% +$91
sports 13% +$9
politics 12% +$3
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% +$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 22 -2.1% -11.4% 32% 9% -10.6%
≤90d 51 +38.6% +25.4% 35% 8% -9.8%
all 83 +26.2% +14.2% 42% 11% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.2% 11% -8.1%
10% +3.2% 5% -16.9%
15% -6.7% 4% -24.9%
20% -15.9% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.74 per $1 lost it wins $3.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses35 / 48
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage301d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $85 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $144 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $84 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $163 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 -9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $95 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $68 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $90 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $94 −$4 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $35 −$5 -15%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $108 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $99 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $95 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $5 +$1 +15%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $109 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $108 −$9 -9%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $3 −$1 -21%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $110 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $14 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $127 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $174 +$1 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $106 +$1 +1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $111 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 02 $102 −$1 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 27 $102 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $6 $0 -7%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $248 −$1 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $103 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $114 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $103 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $4 $0 -3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $199 −$2 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $403 +$3 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $105 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $5 $0 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $157 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $106 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $5 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $85 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $85 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $7 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $92 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $99 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $84 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $60 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $24 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $99 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $93 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $24 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $21 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $9 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $19 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $17 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $22 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $68 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $90 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $68 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $68 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $5 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $4 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $34 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 408 history records