Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:32:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1115…d7b2 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 549d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate24%11W / 34L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% +$1
other 28% $0
economics 9% +$1
sports 6% $0
politics 2% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 45 -10.9% -19.4% 24% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 2% -9.2%
10% -27.1% 0% -17.9%
15% -34.1% 0% -25.8%
20% -40.6% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×17.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.75 per $1 lost it wins $5.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

549d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses11 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage549d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jun 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Jan 22 $44 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 06 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? Oct 28 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Oct 18 $43 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $140 September 29-October 5? Oct 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 September 22-28? Oct 02 $43 $0 +0%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Sep 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Sep 26 $5 $0 +1%
Solana above $200 on February 21? Sep 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Feb 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 13 $0 $0 +11%
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 24 $0 $0 -100%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 24 $0 $0 -20%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 24 $0 $0 -20%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 24 $0 $0 -17%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 24 $0 $0 -17%
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 24 $0 $0 -17%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 24 $0 $0 -14%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 24 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the New York Islanders win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Dec 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Dec 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 24 $5 $0 -0%
Southampton wins the Premier League? Dec 24 $0 $0 -20%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win the Premier League? Dec 24 $0 $0 -17%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? Dec 24 $0 $0 -17%
Leicester City wins the Premier League? Dec 24 $0 $0 -17%
Ipswich Town wins the Premier League? Dec 24 $0 $0 -17%
Tottenham Hotspur wins the Premier League? Dec 24 $0 $0 -17%
Fulham wins the Premier League? Dec 24 $0 $0 -17%
Crystal Palace wins the Premier League? Dec 24 $0 $0 -17%
Newcastle United wins the Premier League? Dec 24 $0 $0 -17%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Dec 24 $0 $0 -17%
Everton wins the Premier League? Dec 24 $0 $0 -17%
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? Dec 24 $0 $0 -14%
Bournemouth wins the Premier League? Dec 24 $5 $0 -0%
Aston Villa wins the Premier League? Dec 24 $5 $0 -0%
Manchester United wins the Premier League? Dec 24 $5 $0 -0%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Dec 24 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $44 155d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 BUY No 100¢ $44 232d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $43 240d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $43 250d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? SELL No 100¢ $43 250d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 99¢ $43 258d
Will Solana dip to $140 September 29-October 5? BUY No 100¢ $43 266d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 September 22-28? BUY No 100¢ $43 273d
Solana above $200 on February 21? BUY No 100¢ $33 489d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $6 499d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL Yes $0 529d
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5 549d
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY Yes $0 549d
Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY Yes $0 549d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY Yes $0 549d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $5 549d
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY Yes $0 549d
Will the Utah Hockey Club win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY Yes $0 549d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY Yes $0 549d
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL Yes $0 549d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL Yes $0 549d
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL Yes $0 549d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL Yes $0 549d
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL Yes $0 549d
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL Yes $0 549d
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5 549d
Will the Philadelphia Flyers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $6 549d
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5 549d
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5 549d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.93 · official $43.93 (match) · 95 history records