Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:22:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
11 0x1113…94df crypto 66 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$145 (+3%) realized −$198 · open +$343
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%15W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$963now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$840
7 days+$840
14 days+$840
30 days+$743
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$1,091
other 15% −$21
sports 9% −$316
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-32.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -3.2% -12.4% 32% 32% +12.3%
≤30d 41 -7.3% -16.2% 32% 32% +8.7%
≤90d 55 -18.3% -26.1% 27% 27% +1.0%
all 61 -24.8% -32.0% 25% 25% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.0% 25% -0.8%
10% -38.5% 23% -10.3%
15% -44.4% 23% -19.0%
20% -49.9% 23% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$181 vs −$50 · ×3.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$963
Realized−$198
Unrealized+$343
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses15 / 46
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)61 / 66
History coverage94d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 20¢ 52¢ $200 $515 +$315 (+157%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $120 $151 +$31 (+26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $206 +$124 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $151 +$174 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 25 $210 +$478 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $208 +$253 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $132 −$125 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $104 +$152 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $132 −$125 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $139 +$210 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $104 +$109 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $106 +$436 +413%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $113 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $104 +$163 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $78 +$105 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $157 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 25 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $53 +$244 +461%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $52 +$58 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $18 −$17 -94%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $106 −$5 -4%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $113 −$22 -20%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $83 +$17 +20%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $87 −$85 -98%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $152 −$149 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 17 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 17 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 17 $53 +$159 +301%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 17 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $11 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $206 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 18m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $105 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $962.85 · official $964.00 (match) · 162 history records