Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:59:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1110…0d48 economics 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care economics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$68 (-15%) realized −$30 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 100% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -7.5% -16.3% 25% 25% -1.1%
≤30d 4 -7.5% -16.3% 25% 25% -1.1%
≤90d 4 -7.5% -16.3% 25% 25% -1.1%
all 4 -7.5% -16.3% 25% 25% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 25% -1.1%
10% -24.3% 25% -10.5%
15% -31.6% 25% -19.2%
20% -38.3% 25% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$52 · ×3.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $49 $24 −$24 (-50%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $27 $13 −$13 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $119 +$188 +158%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $152 −$96 -63%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $62 −$43 -70%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $28 −$16 -55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 10¢ $308 15m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 2¢ $56 23m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 5¢ $15 54m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 4¢ $17 54m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $19 58m
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes 0¢ $13 59m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $105 1h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 4¢ $126 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $7 20h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $7 20h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $7 20h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $7 20h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $21 20h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $21 20h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $54 20h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $44 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.90 · official $37.90 (match) · 17 history records