Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:17:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
11 0x1110…ea61 sports 208 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$254 (+3%) realized +$255 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate67%137W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$229
14 days−$226
30 days+$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$54
other 12% +$157
world 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +17.0% +5.8% 72% 64% +0.3%
≤30d 206 +8.4% -1.9% 67% 58% -7.6%
≤90d 206 +8.4% -1.9% 67% 58% -7.6%
all 206 +8.4% -1.9% 67% 58% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.9% 58% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -11.3% 48% -16.4%
15% -19.9% 38% -24.5%
20% -27.7% 26% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$25 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$255
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses137 / 69
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions2
Markets (closed)206 / 208
History coverage25d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $29 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season T1 Academy 76¢ 82¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $121 +$21 +17%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $116 +$5 +4%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $35 +$15 +43%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $41 +$24 +58%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $31 +$1 +4%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $89 +$16 +18%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $65 +$23 +35%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr Jun 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $12 +$6 +50%
Honor of Kings: TOP Esports Armor vs SYGaming (BO5) - King Pro League Jun 24 $59 −$33 -56%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 24 $183 −$129 -71%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $24 +$6 +27%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $16 −$10 -63%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 +$10 +47%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $9 −$6 -62%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Elise Mertens Jun 23 $40 +$10 +25%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $39 +$10 +26%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $26 +$24 +95%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $37 +$23 +63%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $41 +$12 +28%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 +$3 +114%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$3 +17%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $21 +$9 +46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $19 +$11 +61%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $8 +$12 +156%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $13 −$1 -4%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $44 +$32 +74%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $14 −$9 -69%
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) Jun 22 $118 +$25 +22%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $30 −$21 -69%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $30 +$20 +67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $42 +$28 +66%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $5 +$5 +96%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $92 +$10 +11%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 21 $16 −$9 -55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $15 +$2 +16%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$30 +148%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$10 +101%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $9 +$11 +133%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $249 +$33 +13%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $11 +$9 +82%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $40 +$13 +32%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $106 +$8 +8%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $67 +$33 +49%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $28 −$17 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY T1 Academy 76¢ $11 26m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 73¢ $142 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 61¢ $121 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 80¢ $61 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 80¢ $60 3h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 76¢ $116 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Roman Safiullin 70¢ $28 15h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym BUY Roman Safiullin 70¢ $7 15h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Athletics 50¢ $2 26h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL Athletics 50¢ $13 26h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 54¢ $1 26h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 54¢ $11 26h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 54¢ $16 26h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Athletics 46¢ $14 26h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 66¢ $33 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $31 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 65¢ $32 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 62¢ $31 28h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) SELL South Africa 87¢ $105 28h
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) BUY South Africa 73¢ $89 29h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Virtus.pro 55¢ $33 37h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Virtus.pro 90¢ $38 37h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ SELL Virtus.pro 90¢ $17 37h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Virtus.pro 53¢ $65 38h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $42 38h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 46¢ $14 39h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY 4ikibamboni 18¢ $4 41h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 29¢ $6 44h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 30¢ $4 44h
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super Dr BUY Esport Academy Copenhagen 30¢ $2 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.88 · official $39.88 (match) · 769 history records