Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:50:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
11 0x110f…8f39 other 73 markets active 162d ago coverage 516d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$49,397 (+24%) realized +$49,397 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate63%46W / 27L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$2,872per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$32,580
sports 14% +$17,915
culture 7% +$3,442
politics 6% −$3,684
world 2% −$5
crypto 1% −$292
tech 0% −$561
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 73 +26.4% +14.4% 63% 55% +11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.4% 55% +11.9%
10% ← realistic here +3.4% 41% +1.1%
15% -6.6% 34% -8.6%
20% -15.7% 27% -17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$2,466) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +45% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
17.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,515 vs −$752 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.43 per $1 lost it wins $3.43
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

516d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$49,397
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses46 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage516d
Avg bet$2,872
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? Jan 07 $2,548 −$250 -10%
Will "KPop Demon Hunters" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (Janua Jan 07 $38 +$9 +25%
Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hidebrandt Story" be the top global Ne Jan 07 $530 +$122 +23%
Will "Man on Fire" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 6, 2 Jan 07 $1,587 +$261 +16%
Will "Dave Chappelle: The Unstoppable" be the #2 US Netflix show this Jan 07 $2,198 +$87 +4%
Will "Ricky Gervais: Mortality" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? ( Jan 07 $1,934 +$802 +42%
Will "The Grinch" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (January Jan 07 $2,388 +$531 +22%
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026) Jan 07 $8,348 +$178 +2%
Will Stranger Things: Season 5 have more than 75 million views the wee Jan 06 $38,613 +$438 +1%
Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $1,538 +$762 +50%
Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $12,118 +$1,850 +15%
Will Murray die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $7,513 +$4,347 +58%
Will Jonathan Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $13,608 +$4,004 +29%
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $20,267 +$4,894 +24%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 01 $6,340 +$4,550 +72%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Dec 31 $5,364 +$1,178 +22%
Will "The Grinch" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (December Dec 30 $323 +$748 +232%
Will "Christmas Gameday: Cowboys vs. Commanders" be the #2 US Netflix Dec 30 $1,683 +$1,989 +118%
Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix mov Dec 30 $1,302 +$2,020 +155%
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this wee Dec 30 $1,268 +$838 +66%
Will "Christmas Gameday: Lions vs. Vikings" be the #2 US Netflix show Dec 30 $7,883 −$7,883 -100%
Will Robin Buckley die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 28 $2,020 +$380 +19%
Will Nancy Wheeler die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Dec 27 $1,842 −$5 -0%
Will "Wake Up Dead Man" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (De Dec 27 $172 +$97 +56%
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this wee Dec 24 $689 +$396 +58%
Will "A Cowboy Christmas Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week Dec 24 $4,769 +$1,925 +40%
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show thi Dec 24 $1,944 +$8,011 +412%
Will "Man Vs Baby" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December Dec 24 $3,961 +$17,725 +448%
Will "Sean Combs: The Reckoning: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show t Dec 23 $647 +$527 +81%
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this we Dec 22 $699 −$119 -17%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m Dec 22 $340 −$340 -100%
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the #2 global Netflix show this Dec 22 $88 −$88 -100%
Will "Sean Combs: The Reckoning: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show Dec 22 $1,014 +$181 +18%
Will "The Croods: A New Age" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? Dec 21 $556 −$395 -71%
Will "Man Vs Baby" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December Dec 21 $3,440 −$2,369 -69%
Will Jake Paul walk out to Real American by Rick Derringer? Dec 20 $2,971 +$3,235 +109%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will "Sean Combs: The Reckoning" be the #2 global Netflix show this we Dec 17 $84 +$56 +67%
Will "Stranger Things 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (Decembe Dec 17 $1,481 +$651 +44%
Will "Sean Combs: The Reckoning" be the top global Netflix show this w Dec 17 $4,864 +$250 +5%
Will "Man Vs Baby" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December Dec 17 $5,138 +$1,961 +38%
Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 2 straight weeks? Dec 16 $683 +$496 +73%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this w Dec 16 $239 +$714 +299%
Will "My Secret Santa" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (Dece Dec 16 $10 +$9 +94%
Will Stranger Things: Season 5 be #1 for 3 straight weeks? Dec 15 $347 +$55 +16%
Will "My Secret Santa" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (Decembe Dec 15 $712 −$621 -87%
Will "Man Vs Baby" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December Dec 14 $300 −$177 -59%
Will "Jay Kelly" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 16, 2 Dec 13 $503 −$493 -98%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this we Dec 12 $185 −$85 -46%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 12 $300 −$61 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 23¢ $372 161d
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 59¢ $20 161d
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 59¢ $5 161d
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 59¢ $15 161d
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 59¢ $30 161d
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 59¢ $1 161d
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 59¢ $5 161d
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 59¢ $5 161d
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 59¢ $61 161d
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 59¢ $1 162d
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 59¢ $3 162d
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 59¢ $67 162d
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 59¢ $10 163d
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? SELL Yes 59¢ $21 163d
Will "Man on Fire" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 6, 2 BUY No 90¢ $197 164d
Will "Man on Fire" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 6, 2 BUY No 90¢ $138 164d
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026) BUY Yes 95¢ $519 164d
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026) BUY Yes 95¢ $95 164d
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026) BUY Yes 95¢ $19 164d
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026) BUY Yes 95¢ $19 164d
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026) BUY Yes 95¢ $190 164d
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026) BUY Yes 95¢ $130 164d
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026) BUY Yes 94¢ $736 164d
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026) BUY Yes 95¢ $75 164d
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026) BUY Yes 91¢ $15 164d
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026) BUY Yes 91¢ $39 164d
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026) BUY Yes 91¢ $15 164d
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026) BUY Yes 91¢ $18 164d
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026) BUY Yes 91¢ $20 164d
Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026) BUY Yes 91¢ $47 164d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1480 history records