Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:09:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1109…60c1 crypto 246 markets active 18h ago coverage 589d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$320 (-8%) realized −$320 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%89W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$12
14 days−$3
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$341
other 4% +$9
politics 3% −$20
world 1% −$19
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +8.1% -2.2% 64% 64% +2.8%
≤30d 38 -18.9% -26.6% 47% 42% -31.9%
≤90d 141 -59.5% -63.3% 22% 20% -70.8%
all 246 -13.8% -22.0% 36% 33% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 33% -18.1%
10% -29.5% 28% -26.0%
15% -36.3% 25% -33.1%
20% -42.5% 21% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$13 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$320
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses89 / 157
Open positions0
Markets (closed)246 / 246
History coverage589d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 246 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$8 +82%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $24 −$11 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$7 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $8 +$11 +135%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$2 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 08 $16 −$16 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 08 $15 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 08 $13 +$2 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$5 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -88%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 04 $9 −$9 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$1 +61%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 04 $6 +$10 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 04 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 04 $3 +$4 +136%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 28 $19 −$18 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 28 $16 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 23 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 23 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 23 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 23 $10 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 16 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 16 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 16 $3 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 13 $23 −$21 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 13 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 13 $17 −$8 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 12 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 12 $16 +$5 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $17 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $9 18h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $12 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $17 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $20 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $8 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 650 history records