Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:13:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1104…1566 sports 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-8%) realized +$16 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$49
other 16% +$1
crypto 2% −$4
world 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -10.8% -19.3% 47% 42% -20.7%
≤30d 38 -10.8% -19.3% 47% 42% -20.7%
≤90d 38 -10.8% -19.3% 47% 42% -20.7%
all 38 -10.8% -19.3% 47% 42% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 42% -20.7%
10% -27.0% 42% -28.3%
15% -34.0% 39% -35.2%
20% -40.5% 32% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)38 / 44
History coverage4d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 57¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 19¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 21¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 29¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Over 37¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +89%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +49%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +47%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +88%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +53%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $4 +$4 +99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 +$5 +170%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$3 +69%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $5 +$10 +194%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $2 $0 -0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $4 +$6 +143%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 13 $8 +$5 +63%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 13 $6 +$1 +24%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $2 +$1 +52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +39%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $4 23m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 21¢ $2 53m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $4 53m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $4 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 16¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 16¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $4 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $2 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 22h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $2 22h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $3 22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners SELL Over 0¢ $0 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 23h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $2 24h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 58¢ $5 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $2 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 44¢ $2 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 42¢ $2 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 29h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 66¢ $4 29h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $4 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.96 · official $3.96 (match) · 93 history records