Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:03:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1104…002a other 156 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28,709 (+10%) realized +$28,260 · open +$449
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate61%89W / 56L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$1,924per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$302est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$39,002now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,840
7 days+$16,356
14 days+$17,281
30 days+$18,682
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$8,222
other 27% +$2,556
politics 14% +$9,177
sports 8% +$711
finance 7% +$1,482
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -3.7% -12.9% 73% 48% +9.2%
≤30d 67 -3.0% -12.2% 67% 36% +3.7%
≤90d 111 -3.7% -12.9% 68% 27% +1.3%
all 145 -8.1% -16.9% 61% 25% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 25% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 13% -10.2%
15% -32.1% 8% -18.8%
20% -38.8% 5% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$1,323) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$424 vs −$291 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$39,002
Realized+$28,260
Unrealized+$449
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses89 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$302
Open positions11
Markets (closed)145 / 156
History coverage142d
Avg bet$1,924
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $15,525 $15,268 −$257 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 74¢ 74¢ $9,621 $9,739 +$118 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 94¢ 97¢ $6,189 $6,368 +$180 (+3%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $3,513 $3,746 +$233 (+7%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 91¢ 97¢ $1,567 $1,662 +$95 (+6%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? No 86¢ 90¢ $916 $959 +$43 (+5%)
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 90¢ $756 $782 +$27 (+4%)
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $351 $364 +$12 (+4%)
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $64 $68 +$4 (+6%)
Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $41 $43 +$2 (+4%)
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $4,277 −$4,117 -96%
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership elect Jun 23 $65 +$8 +12%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $221 +$141 +64%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $3,550 +$407 +12%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $63 −$62 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $940 +$362 +38%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $1,137 +$73 +6%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $3,168 +$309 +10%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $266 +$33 +12%
Argentina vs. Austria: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $2,433 −$2,070 -85%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 22 $18,103 +$9,607 +53%
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership el Jun 22 $95 +$3 +3%
Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31? Jun 22 $99 −$94 -95%
Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $146 −$141 -97%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership e Jun 22 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership Jun 22 $9 $0 +5%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by June 30? Jun 22 $187 +$8 +4%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $1,416 −$1,416 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $2,917 +$697 +24%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $6,093 +$5,050 +83%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,005 +$174 +17%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 21 $709 −$690 -97%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $1,941 +$20 +1%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 20 $2,689 +$443 +16%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 20 $84 +$31 +37%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $3,780 +$5,857 +155%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $1,286 +$267 +21%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 15, 2026? Jun 19 $197 −$196 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $417 +$197 +47%
United States vs. Australia: Second half draw? Jun 19 $240 +$146 +61%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $339 +$84 +25%
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Jun 19 $477 +$19 +4%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Jun 19 $281 +$82 +29%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $10,366 −$474 -5%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $107 −$23 -22%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $1,823 +$330 +18%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $823 +$56 +7%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $22 +$4 +18%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $553 +$29 +5%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1,257 +$476 +38%
Will there be 15+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,361 +$421 +31%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $934 +$18 +2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $2,381 +$389 +16%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%? Jun 17 $28 +$10 +34%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $571 +$20 +4%
World Cup: Single Match Yellow Cards Record Broken? Jun 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will there be 20+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $264 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $3 6m
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes 98¢ $405 57m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $406 57m
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes 95¢ $193 58m
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,000 58m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $1,194 58m
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes 94¢ $935 59m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 82¢ $0 59m
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $980 59m
Burnham unopposed in 2026 Labour leadership contest? BUY Yes 83¢ $42 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 82¢ $16 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 82¢ $6 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 83¢ $19 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 83¢ $92 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 83¢ $25 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,273 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $4,785 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $7,967 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 82¢ $164 2h
Will Al Carns be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership elect SELL No 98¢ $38 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 20¢ $160 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 27¢ $53 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 27¢ $1 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 25¢ $25 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 25¢ $51 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 25¢ $32 3h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 25¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39,002.18 · official $39,002.18 (match) · 2867 history records