Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:46:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
11 0x1103…57e3 weather 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$198 (+1%) realized +$198 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%86W / 99L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days−$219
14 days−$219
30 days−$113
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% +$332
other 4% −$177
world 1% −$86
crypto 0% −$13
sports 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -23.0% -30.3% 43% 38% -42.0%
≤30d 49 +27.0% +14.9% 49% 45% -17.5%
≤90d 185 +9.6% -0.8% 46% 36% -9.3%
all 185 +9.6% -0.8% 46% 36% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 36% -9.3%
10% -10.3% 28% -18.0%
15% -19.0% 23% -25.9%
20% -26.9% 19% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$29 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$198
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses86 / 99
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)185 / 186
History coverage107d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 +$26 +140%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$16 -53%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$84 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $17 +$10 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $122 −$70 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $4 +$10 +241%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 2? Jun 02 $15 −$6 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 1? Jun 01 $52 +$28 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 1? Jun 01 $11 +$19 +181%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 1? Jun 01 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 30? May 30 $48 −$37 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 30? May 30 $92 −$38 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $57 +$18 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 29? May 29 $10 +$10 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 29? May 29 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 28? May 28 $14 +$72 +517%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 28? May 28 $11 +$98 +899%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 28? May 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 27? May 27 $60 +$11 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 27? May 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 25? May 25 $10 +$18 +171%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on May 25? May 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 24? May 24 $10 +$23 +220%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 24? May 24 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 24? May 24 $61 −$10 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 22? May 22 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 21? May 21 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 21? May 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on May 21? May 21 $10 +$13 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 17? May 17 $2 +$7 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 18? May 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 39h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.98 · official $2.98 (match) · 715 history records