Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:04:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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11 0x1102…af36 sports 874 markets active 1h ago coverage 174d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 174d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,857 (+5%) realized +$5,299 · open −$1,442
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate60%438W / 288L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$127est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$7,533now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 174d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% −$315
other 26% −$1,496
crypto 13% +$1,053
politics 8% −$56
world 5% −$198
culture 4% +$663
tech 2% −$71
finance 1% +$193
economics 1% −$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +17.6% +6.4% 78% 45% -3.0%
≤30d 67 +14.9% +3.9% 76% 48% -0.2%
≤90d 348 +9.5% -0.9% 68% 50% -4.6%
all 726 -1.6% -11.0% 60% 48% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 48% -8.1%
10% -19.5% 39% -16.9%
15% -27.3% 32% -24.9%
20% -34.4% 25% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$53 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$7,533
Realized+$5,299
Unrealized−$1,442
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses438 / 288
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$127
Open positions153
Markets (closed)726 / 874
History coverage174d ⚠
Avg bet$82
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 153 History 726 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 80¢ $496 $478 −$18 (-4%)
Will Sean Strickland be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 48¢ $373 $233 −$140 (-38%)
Will Petr Yan fight Merab Dvalishvili next? Yes 73¢ 64¢ $248 $216 −$32 (-13%)
Larry Wheels divorce by June 30? No 70¢ 81¢ $186 $215 +$29 (+16%)
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? No 72¢ 70¢ $217 $210 −$7 (-3%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 68¢ 60¢ $230 $202 −$28 (-12%)
Will Ilia Topuria be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 96¢ $178 $192 +$14 (+8%)
Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 79¢ 93¢ $158 $187 +$29 (+18%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 52¢ 14¢ $630 $174 −$456 (-72%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $199 $170 −$29 (-15%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No 34¢ 35¢ $144 $148 +$4 (+3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 23¢ $233 $148 −$86 (-37%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 66¢ 76¢ $118 $138 +$19 (+16%)
Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $128 $134 +$6 (+5%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 52¢ 66¢ $104 $133 +$29 (+28%)
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? No 59¢ 72¢ $106 $131 +$25 (+24%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 63¢ 54¢ $151 $128 −$23 (-15%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $56 $99 +$43 (+78%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 73¢ 97¢ $73 $97 +$24 (+33%)
Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 56¢ $67 $96 +$29 (+44%)
Will Kash Patel be arrested before 2027? No 90¢ 94¢ $90 $94 +$4 (+5%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $94 $94 −$0 (-0%)
Will Merab Dvalishvili become UFC champion in 2026? No 65¢ 72¢ $84 $93 +$9 (+11%)
Will Candace Owens be arrested before 2027? No 89¢ 93¢ $89 $93 +$4 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $92 $92 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada recession before 2027? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $336 +$62 +19%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $69 +$10 +14%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 21 $85 +$2 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $84 +$2 +2%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Jun 21 $94 +$171 +181%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 21 $90 +$8 +9%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 21 $93 +$5 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $138 +$8 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $105 +$45 +43%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $152 +$5 +4%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $162 +$1 +0%
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 Jun 21 $161 $0 -0%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Jun 21 $114 +$50 +44%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? Jun 21 $165 +$2 +1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $187 +$1 +0%
Clavicular sentenced to prison? Jun 21 $241 +$6 +2%
No one announced as next James Bond? Jun 21 $350 +$63 +18%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $402 +$26 +6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $365 +$8 +2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 21 $337 +$21 +6%
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Jun 21 $249 +$13 +5%
Record crypto liquidation in 2026? Jun 21 $69 +$20 +30%
Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Jun 21 $95 +$3 +3%
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? Jun 21 $84 +$15 +18%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 21 $189 +$8 +4%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $73 +$27 +37%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $70 +$30 +43%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $47 +$53 +113%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $71 +$29 +42%
Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30? Jun 18 $1,736 +$40 +2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $71 +$29 +41%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $43 +$57 +133%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $157 +$73 +47%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 +$50 +101%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $70 +$30 +43%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $285 −$1 -0%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $61 −$60 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $88 +$42 +48%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 15? Jun 16 $71 +$29 +41%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $84 +$16 +18%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 −$51 -99%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $63 +$63 +99%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $8 +$41 +488%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $79 1h
Will GameStop acquire eBay? SELL No 87¢ $86 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $86 1h
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $93 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $98 1h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 98¢ $98 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $146 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $150 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 79¢ $157 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $162 1h
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026 SELL Yes 75¢ $161 1h
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 SELL Yes 82¢ $164 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $167 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $188 1h
Clavicular sentenced to prison? SELL No 85¢ $247 1h
No one announced as next James Bond? SELL Yes 93¢ $412 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $252 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $372 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $358 1h
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? SELL No 76¢ $263 2h
Record crypto liquidation in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $89 2h
Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $98 2h
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $99 2h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $197 2h
Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1,208 3d
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 46¢ $53 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $162 3d
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? BUY No 34¢ $21 3d
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? BUY No 34¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,532.89 · official $7,532.92 (match) · 3500 history records