Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:23:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1101…dfd5 sports 215 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,704 (-10%) realized −$1,882 · open +$178
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%78W / 133L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$271est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$278now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$942
14 days−$194
30 days−$828
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$1,691
other 10% +$183
world 0% −$39
weather 0% +$19
tech 0% −$5
crypto 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 +4.2% -5.7% 30% 28% -35.2%
≤30d 157 +5.1% -4.9% 35% 32% -20.7%
≤90d 211 +6.9% -3.3% 37% 34% -18.9%
all 211 +6.9% -3.3% 37% 34% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 34% -18.9%
10% -12.5% 32% -26.7%
15% -21.0% 28% -33.7%
20% -28.7% 28% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$61 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$278
Realized−$1,882
Unrealized+$178
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses78 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$271
Open positions1
Markets (closed)211 / 215
History coverage45d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $100 $278 +$178 (+178%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 126 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $102 +$98 +97%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$30 +146%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 23 $176 +$33 +18%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 22 $140 +$10 +7%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -97%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $30 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $17 −$16 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $17 −$16 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $17 −$16 -97%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $20 +$18 +90%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $30 +$29 +96%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 +$27 +134%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 +$16 +388%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 IR Iran? Jun 21 $7 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 21 $7 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 21 $7 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 21 $7 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 21 $7 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $7 −$6 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $106 +$111 +105%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $7 +$144 +2161%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $31 −$30 -99%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $2 +$15 +712%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 +$19 +185%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 31m
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals SELL No 98¢ $68 4h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals SELL No 98¢ $141 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $51 5h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 5h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY No 74¢ $76 7h
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals BUY No 93¢ $140 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 13h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 45¢ $10 13h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 45¢ $20 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 29¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 13h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 13h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 13h
Spread: France (-2.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 29¢ $10 17h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 17h
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals BUY No 90¢ $100 19h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 26h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 29h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $277.64 · official $277.64 (match) · 506 history records