Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:51:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
11 0x1100…9fc1 other 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$15
politics 30% −$13
sports 10% +$38
crypto 5% −$2
world 3% −$1
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 87 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 121 +1.5% -8.2% 9% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 4% -9.5%
10% -17.0% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.0% 1% -26.1%
20% -32.3% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×11.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)121 / 122
History coverage130d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $106 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $1,059 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $29 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $308 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $291 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $35 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $33 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $33 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $255 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $238 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $279 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 24 $218 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $198 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 20 $277 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $217 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 18 $243 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $288 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $209 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $202 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $276 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $224 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $202 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $207 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 10 $256 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $261 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $287 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $273 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 09 $43 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Apr 20 $294 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $275 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $285 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 18 $241 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $256 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $208 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $289 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 16 $253 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $287 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $431 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $242 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 1h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 9h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 9h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 18h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $43 18h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 2d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $44 6d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $44 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 7d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 7d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $26 7d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $26 16d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 19d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 20d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $35 20d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $35 20d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 20d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 21d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $33 21d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $33 21d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 21d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 23d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $270 24d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $270 25d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $270 25d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $270 25d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $255 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.98 · official $39.98 (match) · 363 history records