Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:26:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10ff…ff77 sports 773 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,807 (-7%) realized −$2,791 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%334W / 399L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Fees−$491est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$1,416now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$481
7 days+$383
14 days−$277
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$319
other 18% −$673
crypto 1% −$34
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 -0.0% -9.5% 52% 50% -3.9%
≤30d 307 -7.3% -16.2% 46% 42% -8.7%
≤90d 712 -6.0% -14.9% 46% 44% -12.1%
all 733 -6.0% -15.0% 46% 43% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 43% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 41% -20.3%
15% -30.6% 36% -28.0%
20% -37.4% 30% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$42 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$1,416
Realized−$2,791
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses334 / 399
Est. fees paid−$491
Open positions40
Markets (closed)733 / 773
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$52
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 40 History 733 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Rinky Hijikata Rinky Hijikata 70¢ 84¢ $128 $153 +$25 (+19%)
Wimbledon ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Michael Zheng Michael Zheng 74¢ 74¢ $107 $107 −$1 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Sebastian Ofner Hubert Hurkacz 74¢ 74¢ $107 $107 −$1 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Jiri Lehecka vs Alexei Popyrin Jiri Lehecka 82¢ 76¢ $105 $98 −$7 (-7%)
Wimbledon ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Jacob Fearnley Alex Michelsen 55¢ 56¢ $85 $87 +$2 (+2%)
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Under 56¢ 56¢ $81 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda Zachary Svajda 71¢ 72¢ $72 $72 +$1 (+1%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $71 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Tereza Valentova vs Karolina Pliskova Karolina Pliskova 54¢ 56¢ $66 $68 +$2 (+3%)
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 59¢ 60¢ $66 $67 +$1 (+1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Alexander Bublik Alexander Bublik 74¢ 68¢ $67 $62 −$5 (-7%)
Wimbledon ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Billy Harris Karen Khachanov 73¢ 74¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+2%)
Wimbledon ATP: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Ethan Quinn Ethan Quinn 69¢ 69¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Lanlana Tararudee Ekaterina Alexandrova 78¢ 78¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Belinda Bencic vs Xinyu Wang Belinda Bencic 73¢ 74¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Jaume Munar vs Francisco Cerundolo Francisco Cerundolo 74¢ 76¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+3%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $27 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $22 $25 +$3 (+16%)
Will Belinda Bencic be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $14 $23 +$10 (+69%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $18 $23 +$4 (+25%)
Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $9 $15 +$6 (+64%)
Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $16 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $14 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cary: Liam Broady vs Hayato Matsuoka Jun 30 $63 +$20 +32%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $45 +$44 +96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $26 +$21 +82%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $11 +$15 +127%
Wimbledon WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Lilli Tagger Jun 29 $35 +$47 +133%
Wimbledon ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 29 $88 +$28 +32%
Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 29 $55 +$24 +42%
Wimbledon ATP: Ethan Quinn vs Luciano Darderi Jun 29 $19 +$12 +61%
Brasov: Maks Kasnikowski vs Andres Andrade Jun 29 $42 +$25 +59%
Wimbledon WTA: Alycia Parks vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 29 $86 +$51 +59%
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 29 $47 +$45 +96%
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Jun 29 $160 +$45 +28%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $20 +$46 +233%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $23 −$10 -43%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $34 +$36 +105%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $153 +$34 +22%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $101 +$19 +19%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $48 +$71 +150%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys Jun 27 $90 +$28 +31%
Wimbledon ATP: Hugo Gaston vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Jun 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $77 +$17 +22%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $33 +$23 +70%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Andrej Nedic Jun 26 $49 −$49 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Karolina Muchova Jun 26 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys Jun 26 $126 +$24 +19%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $41 +$42 +104%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $57 +$65 +113%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $62 +$60 +96%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Piracicaba: Luis Felipe Miguel vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 26 $47 +$7 +16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $67 +$104 +156%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $76 +$55 +72%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Tomas Barrios Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Alina Charaeva Jun 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Teodora Kostovic vs Lin Zhu Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Bianca Andreesc Jun 25 $45 −$45 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mariam Bolkvadze vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 25 $76 −$76 -100%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 25 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $239 −$73 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon WTA: Belinda Bencic vs Xinyu Wang BUY Belinda Bencic 73¢ $30 5m
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $3 6m
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 9m
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1 10m
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $32 29m
Wimbledon WTA: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Lanlana Tararudee BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 78¢ $31 52m
Wimbledon ATP: Nicolas Mejia vs Michael Zheng BUY Michael Zheng 74¢ $108 59m
France vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $43 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 69¢ $44 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Zachary Svajda BUY Zachary Svajda 71¢ $72 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Hubert Hurkacz vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Hubert Hurkacz 74¢ $108 1h
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $66 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 40¢ $24 5h
Brasov: Radu Albot vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 74¢ $11 5h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $26 11h
Wimbledon WTA: Alycia Parks vs Alicia Dudeney BUY Alycia Parks 63¢ $11 20h
Wimbledon WTA: Alycia Parks vs Alicia Dudeney BUY Alycia Parks 63¢ $35 20h
Wimbledon WTA: Alycia Parks vs Alicia Dudeney BUY Alycia Parks 63¢ $3 20h
Wimbledon WTA: Alycia Parks vs Alicia Dudeney BUY Alycia Parks 63¢ $9 20h
Wimbledon WTA: Alycia Parks vs Alicia Dudeney BUY Alycia Parks 63¢ $10 20h
Wimbledon WTA: Alycia Parks vs Alicia Dudeney BUY Alycia Parks 63¢ $3 20h
Wimbledon WTA: Alycia Parks vs Alicia Dudeney BUY Alycia Parks 63¢ $2 20h
Wimbledon WTA: Alycia Parks vs Alicia Dudeney BUY Alycia Parks 63¢ $6 20h
Brasov: Maks Kasnikowski vs Andres Andrade BUY Maks Kasnikowski 63¢ $3 21h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Brasov: Maks Kasnikowski vs Andres Andrade BUY Maks Kasnikowski 63¢ $3 24h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 51¢ $45 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $28 26h
Wimbledon ATP: Marin Cilic vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 70¢ $14 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,415.86 · official $1,415.93 (match) · 3500 history records