Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:08:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
10 0x10fe…1a57 crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$190 (+13%) realized +$191 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate73%36W / 13L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day49.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% +$148
other 30% −$34
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +14.2% +3.3% 73% 59% -2.0%
≤30d 49 +14.2% +3.3% 73% 59% -2.0%
≤90d 49 +14.2% +3.3% 73% 59% -2.0%
all 49 +14.2% +3.3% 73% 59% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.3% 59% -2.0%
10% ← realistic here -6.6% 57% -11.4%
15% -15.6% 43% -19.9%
20% -23.9% 29% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$21 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$191
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses36 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage2d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day49.9
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $15 +$4 +25%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $105 −$95 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $46 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $61 +$30 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $201 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$18 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$22 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $42 +$84 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $73 −$59 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $121 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $75 +$34 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$1 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $100 +$71 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$11 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.13 · official $104.13 (match) · 150 history records