Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:53:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10fe…3053 other 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$117 (-14%) realized −$93 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate18%13W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$271now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$49
weather 18% −$59
crypto 5% $0
politics 2% −$4
sports 2% +$1
economics 1% −$5
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -38.9% -44.7% 0% 0% -53.4%
≤30d 13 -46.8% -51.9% 23% 23% -48.0%
≤90d 14 -50.6% -55.3% 21% 21% -48.3%
all 71 -28.6% -35.4% 18% 17% -45.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.4% 17% -45.0%
10% -41.6% 15% -50.3%
15% -47.2% 11% -55.1%
20% -52.4% 7% -59.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$271
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses13 / 58
Open positions35
Markets (closed)71 / 106
History coverage233d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $29 $26 −$3 (-11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $21 −$3 (-12%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $23 $20 −$3 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $17 −$1 (-8%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $16 +$4 (+33%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $12 +$1 (+6%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $14 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $9 −$2 (-15%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $7 −$2 (-19%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $6 $3 −$3 (-47%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $2 +$0 (+28%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+75%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-37%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -16%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $18 −$11 -62%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 28? May 28 $12 −$5 -44%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 28? May 28 $34 −$32 -94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $51 −$31 -60%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 28? May 28 $2 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27? May 27 $18 +$4 +21%
Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on May 26? May 27 $12 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on May 26? May 27 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C or higher on May 26? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26? May 27 $15 +$6 +40%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 27? May 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $1 +$5 +525%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Sound at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awar Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $1 $0 -11%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $1 $0 -10%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 15 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Mar 15 $1 $0 +24%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 15 $1 $0 -13%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Mar 15 $1 $0 -23%
Will the winner of Beast Games: Season 2 be Strong or Smart? Feb 26 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 26 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey silver medal at the 2026 Winter O Feb 26 $1 +$1 +133%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer? Feb 26 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Analilia Mejia be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special el Feb 20 $1 +$5 +525%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a contestant numbered 1 - 25 win Beast Games: Season 2? Jan 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a contestant numbered 126 - 150 win Beast Games: Season 2? Jan 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a contestant numbered 26 - 50 win Beast Games: Season 2? Jan 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 07 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 6–10 seconds? Dec 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 15 seconds or longer? Dec 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 10–15 seconds? Dec 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brendan Gill be the Democratic nominee for the NJ-11 special elec Dec 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Dec 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary Ele Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett lose the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary El Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey silver medal at the 2026 W Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the United States win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Wint Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympic Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympi Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 3m
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 27m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 39m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 41m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 56m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 57m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 58m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 58m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 5h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 5h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $270.54 · official $270.54 (match) · 307 history records