Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:23:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
10 0x10fc…442e sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$588 (-26%) realized −$588 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$32
30 days−$620
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$617
world 24% −$7
politics 20% −$16
other 9% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -41.7% -47.2% 27% 9% -49.4%
≤90d 14 -32.3% -38.7% 36% 7% -33.3%
all 14 -32.3% -38.7% 36% 7% -33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.7% 7% -33.3%
10% -44.6% 7% -39.7%
15% -50.0% 7% -45.5%
20% -54.9% 7% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$96 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$588
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage78d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
NATO article 5 before 2027? Jun 27 $64 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? Jun 19 $26 −$16 -60%
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Jun 18 $28 −$16 -60%
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) Jun 09 $82 −$82 -100%
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? Jun 09 $86 $0 +0%
Spread: Bulgaria (-2.5) Jun 01 $44 −$44 -100%
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $44 +$1 +2%
Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-2.5) May 30 $80 −$80 -100%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? May 30 $80 +$45 +57%
Spread: US Catanzaro 1929 (-1.5) May 29 $438 −$437 -100%
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, May 29 $432 +$9 +2%
Spread: Real Oviedo (-2.5) Apr 27 $416 +$26 +6%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? Apr 26 $416 $0 +0%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 11 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
NATO article 5 before 2027? SELL Yes $33 1h
NATO article 5 before 2027? SELL Yes $32 1h
NATO article 5 before 2027? BUY Yes $33 2h
NATO article 5 before 2027? BUY Yes $32 2h
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? SELL Yes $6 7d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? SELL Yes $5 7d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? BUY Yes $14 8d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? BUY Yes $12 8d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? SELL Yes $5 8d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? SELL Yes $6 8d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? BUY Yes $14 9d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? BUY Yes $14 9d
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) BUY Thailand $40 17d
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) BUY Thailand $42 17d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? SELL Yes $42 17d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? SELL Yes $43 17d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? BUY Yes $43 18d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? BUY Yes $42 18d
Spread: Bulgaria (-2.5) BUY Bulgaria $23 25d
Spread: Bulgaria (-2.5) BUY Bulgaria $22 25d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $22 25d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $23 25d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $22 25d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $22 25d
Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-2.5) BUY AD Ceuta FC $40 28d
Spread: AD Ceuta FC (-2.5) BUY AD Ceuta FC $40 28d
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $63 28d
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $62 28d
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? BUY Yes $9 28d
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? BUY Yes $16 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 53 history records