Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:00:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
10 0x10f8…e7f5 sports 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%29W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$180
7 days+$252
14 days+$40
30 days+$197
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$110
other 4% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +13.4% +2.6% 67% 67% +7.1%
≤30d 41 -5.0% -14.0% 54% 54% -2.8%
≤90d 56 -13.3% -21.5% 52% 52% -7.8%
all 56 -13.3% -21.5% 52% 52% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 52% -7.8%
10% -29.0% 50% -16.6%
15% -35.9% 43% -24.6%
20% -42.2% 29% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$40 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses29 / 27
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions0
Markets (closed)56 / 56
History coverage54d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 56 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $41 +$50 +123%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $41 +$45 +110%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $101 +$57 +57%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $151 −$12 -8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $81 +$39 +48%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $101 +$46 +46%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $51 +$30 +59%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $93 +$37 +40%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $91 +$43 +48%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $40 −$40 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $91 +$33 +36%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $64 +$34 +53%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $71 +$46 +65%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $41 +$29 +71%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$26 +86%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $46 +$39 +84%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $282 −$3 -1%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 12 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $29 −$28 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $76 +$68 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 +$56 +109%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $101 +$74 +73%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 02 $51 −$50 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $60 +$77 +129%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 27 $81 +$39 +48%
Spread: Knicks (-12.5) May 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 25 $61 +$31 +51%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $53 +$17 +32%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 22 $54 +$31 +57%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $60 +$24 +40%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $40 −$40 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 05 $36 +$10 +27%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner May 03 $102 −$100 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $51 −$50 -98%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $40 −$40 -99%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $6 −$5 -98%
Spread: Lakers (-4.5) Apr 30 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $91 7m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Paper Rex 44¢ $41 44m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $86 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 47¢ $41 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $159 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 63¢ $101 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 63¢ $139 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $151 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $81 13h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $147 25h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 68¢ $101 26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 62¢ $51 26h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $81 27h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 62¢ $51 28h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 59¢ $51 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $130 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 71¢ $93 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $134 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $91 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 63¢ $40 2d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Korea Republic 73¢ $91 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $61 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 4d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 67¢ $50 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 99¢ $69 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 57¢ $41 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 60¢ $71 6d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $30 7d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $85 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records