Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:26:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
10 0x10f7…9a4b world 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$3
other 27% −$1
finance 10% −$1
tech 2% $0
politics 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 +1.8% -7.9% 30% 10% -9.2%
≤90d 10 +1.8% -7.9% 30% 10% -9.2%
all 19 -3.6% -12.8% 47% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 5% -9.4%
10% -21.2% 5% -18.0%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage457d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 03 $4 $0 -5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $53 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $75 +$3 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $4 +$1 +23%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $46 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $41 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $84 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Jun 24 $8 $0 +5%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? May 09 $8 $0 +3%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 20 $7 $0 +1%
Will 'Magazine Dreams' gross between 1-2m on opening weekend? Mar 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $48 0m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $48 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 19d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $48 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $48 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 36¢ $3 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $30 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $28 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $1 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $45 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $45 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $1 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $1 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $1 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $0 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $0 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $3 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $2 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $1 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $1 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $41 25d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $41 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $0 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records