Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:23:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
10 0x10f6…c0dd other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-12%) realized −$29 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 96d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$7
sports 42% −$36
weather 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +11.8% +1.1% 50% 50% -41.6%
≤30d 2 +11.8% +1.1% 50% 50% -41.6%
≤90d 2 +11.8% +1.1% 50% 50% -41.6%
all 3 +7.8% -2.5% 33% 33% -35.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 33% -35.3%
10% -11.8% 33% -41.5%
15% -20.4% 33% -47.2%
20% -28.2% 33% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$36 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)3 / 10
History coverage96d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 93¢ 93¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 48¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-25%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 18 $73 −$73 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $29 +$36 +124%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C or below on March 14? Mar 14 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.35 · official $158.35 (match) · 18 history records