Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10f5…d192 other 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 220L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$25
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$38
sports 21% −$19
culture 8% −$8
politics 8% −$9
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$2
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 80 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 235 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)235 / 236
History coverage125d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $104 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $458 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $669 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $522 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $139 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $117 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $479 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $177 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $251 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $138 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $436 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $250 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $225 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $182 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $161 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $165 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $381 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $264 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $149 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 07 $429 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $82 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $642 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $441 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $109 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $407 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $179 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $217 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $153 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 03 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $407 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $484 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $368 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $533 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 01 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $262 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 1h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $46 2h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $46 4h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 6h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 8h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 9h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 11h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 12h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 23h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 25h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 30h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 32h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 35h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 36h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 38h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 39h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 42h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 43h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 47h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $47 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 2d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.54 · official $45.54 (match) · 1371 history records