Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:14:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10f4…be82 crypto 664 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (285 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$109 (+4%) realized +$108 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%312W / 351L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day284.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (285 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 663 -11.3% -19.7% 47% 47% -9.0%
≤30d 663 -11.3% -19.7% 47% 47% -9.0%
≤90d 663 -11.3% -19.7% 47% 47% -9.0%
all 663 -11.3% -19.7% 47% 47% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover284.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 47% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 47% -17.7%
15% -34.4% 46% -25.6%
20% -40.9% 44% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$108
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses312 / 351
Open positions1
Markets (closed)663 / 664
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day284.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 663 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 54¢ 88¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$2 +164%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 29 $8 +$5 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +132%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 29 $37 +$22 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 29 $33 +$28 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 29 $41 +$31 +75%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $12 +$3 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 29 $4 +$2 +66%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $1 +$1 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 19m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 54m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $37 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $33 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $16 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.78 · official $1.68 (match) · 1327 history records