Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:11:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

10
0x10f4…c2ea
weather · 219 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$65 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$67 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses106 / 109
Open positions4
Markets (closed)215 / 219
History coverage47d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 215 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$25
14 days−$104
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? No 55¢ 64¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? No 55¢ 80¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? No 56¢ 57¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? No 58¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 13 $17 −$8 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$3 -72%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $14 −$12 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? Jun 10 $4 +$3 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 +$3 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 08 $16 +$12 +72%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 08 $6 −$2 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$2 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 07 $12 −$6 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $7 +$7 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 6? Jun 06 $8 +$3 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $8 −$6 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $8 +$4 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 5? Jun 05 $8 +$6 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 4? Jun 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 05 $20 −$10 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 4? Jun 05 $16 −$11 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 05 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $16 +$9 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $16 −$9 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $6 +$5 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2? Jun 03 $6 −$2 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $16 −$8 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $16 −$8 -49%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 2? Jun 03 $12 +$12 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C or higher on June 2? Jun 03 $10 −$6 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 2? Jun 03 $16 −$8 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? Jun 03 $16 −$13 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 2? Jun 02 $20 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $11 +$9 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 1? Jun 02 $16 −$8 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 1? Jun 02 $8 +$6 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $10 +$7 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on June Jun 01 $16 −$8 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $31 +$11 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $10 −$6 -61%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ma May 31 $16 −$14 -84%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on May May 31 $10 +$5 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 30? May 31 $16 −$14 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May May 30 $16 +$3 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on May May 30 $1 +$1 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 29? May 30 $5 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 29? May 30 $13 +$10 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $6 +$4 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$64
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 55¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 58¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY No 56¢ $4 15h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 55¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? SELL No 14¢ $9 46h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 24¢ $17 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 56¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? SELL No 1¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? SELL No 17¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? BUY No 58¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 48¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 53¢ $4 4d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 10? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 21¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $14 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? SELL No 1¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 58¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? BUY No 37¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? BUY No 58¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? SELL No 20¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL No 47¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 6? SELL No 20¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 6? SELL No 20¢ $1 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? BUY No 58¢ $3 7d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 6? SELL No 91¢ $13 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 6? SELL No 61¢ $4 7d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C or higher on June 6? SELL No 76¢ $5 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? SELL No 32¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -32.7% -39.1% 29% 29% -33.3%
≤30d 166 -2.4% -11.7% 46% 45% -15.5%
≤90d 215 +0.6% -9.0% 49% 48% -12.6%
all 215 +0.6% -9.0% 49% 48% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 48% -12.6%
10% -17.7% 46% -21.0%
15% -25.6% 45% -28.6%
20% -32.9% 37% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.69 · official $16.69 (match) · 690 history records