Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:49:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10ef…5b70 sports 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 463d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$193 (-4%) realized −$193 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%22W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$195
other 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 3 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 9 -8.5% -17.3% 11% 11% -11.1%
all 65 -16.2% -24.2% 34% 34% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 34% -13.7%
10% -31.4% 34% -22.0%
15% -38.1% 34% -29.5%
20% -44.1% 34% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$13 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

463d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$193
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses22 / 43
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage463d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $1,043 −$9 -1%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $399 −$3 -1%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $2,057 −$13 -1%
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5) Apr 29 $282 −$12 -4%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 29 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $57 $0 +0%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 29 $36 −$1 -3%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 17 $37 −$37 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Apr 13 $10 +$13 +132%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 230.5 Jan 28 $75 +$61 +82%
Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5 Jan 28 $75 +$64 +85%
Cavaliers vs. Magic: O/U 228.5 Jan 28 $75 +$72 +95%
Heat vs. Jazz: O/U 246.5 Jan 24 $75 −$75 -100%
Celtics vs. Bulls: O/U 230.5 Jan 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Celtics vs. Bulls Jan 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Wizards vs. Hornets: O/U 232.5 Jan 24 $75 −$75 -100%
Warriors vs. Timberwolves: O/U 236.5 Jan 24 $75 −$75 -100%
Lightning vs. Devils Jan 24 $6 +$5 +82%
Hurricanes vs. Capitals Jan 24 $6 +$6 +96%
Sharks vs. Maple Leafs Jan 24 $5 +$9 +178%
Golden Knights vs. Flyers Dec 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Senators vs. Blue Jackets Dec 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Ducks vs. Islanders Dec 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Kings vs. Kraken Dec 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Sabres vs. Red Wings Nov 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ducks vs. Wild Nov 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Lightning vs. Panthers Nov 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Islanders vs. Utah Nov 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Flyers vs. Blues Nov 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Blues vs. Red Wings Nov 15 $5 +$4 +89%
Canadiens vs. Canucks Nov 15 $5 +$5 +96%
Utah vs. Wild Nov 15 $5 +$5 +104%
Kings vs. Predators Nov 15 $5 +$6 +117%
Oilers vs. Kraken Nov 15 $5 +$8 +156%
Avalanche vs. Bruins Nov 15 $5 +$9 +178%
Canucks vs. Hurricanes Nov 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Fever vs. Dream Oct 25 $3 +$9 +285%
Hurricanes vs. Stars Oct 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Senators vs. Capitals Oct 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Penguins Oct 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Sabres vs. Maple Leafs Oct 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Panthers Oct 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Ducks vs. Lightning Oct 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Islanders vs. Flyers Oct 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Phillies vs. Marlins Sep 18 $5 +$3 +52%
Capitals vs. Hurricanes Sep 18 $5 +$3 +52%
Red Sox vs. Mariners Sep 18 $5 +$4 +89%
Cubs vs. Phillies Sep 18 $5 +$5 +92%
Reds vs. Guardians Sep 18 $5 +$5 +100%
Storm vs. Aces Sep 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 67¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 67¢ $50 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 67¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 67¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 32¢ $81 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 32¢ $78 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 32¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 67¢ $172 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 67¢ $174 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 32¢ $29 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 32¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 67¢ $172 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 67¢ $174 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 32¢ $22 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 32¢ $81 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 32¢ $83 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 67¢ $170 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 67¢ $61 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 67¢ $91 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 67¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 32¢ $83 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 31¢ $80 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 69¢ $176 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 69¢ $89 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 69¢ $89 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL HULIGANI 39¢ $201 3h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL HULIGANI 38¢ $59 3h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY HULIGANI 37¢ $95 3h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL HULIGANI 38¢ $19 3h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL HULIGANI 38¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 234 history records