Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:20:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
10 0x10ee…9e31 politics 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 237d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%9W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$6
sports 22% −$2
other 11% −$1
culture 8% −$1
crypto 6% $0
economics 2% +$1
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -9.7% -18.3% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 6 -6.4% -15.3% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 7 -5.5% -14.5% 43% 0% -9.6%
all 61 -5.6% -14.6% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -22.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

237d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses9 / 52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage237d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $115 $115 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1 $0 -19%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $113 $0 -0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $110 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $112 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 30 $112 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $117 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $227 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 15 $115 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 09 $115 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 29 $117 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 27 $113 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $2 $0 -11%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 25 $108 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 23 $116 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 21? Jan 21 $112 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 20 $232 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 18 $119 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 16 $234 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 14 $114 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 11 $1 $0 -50%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 10 $117 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 09 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 07 $119 −$1 -1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 05 $114 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 03 $1 $0 -50%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 01 $118 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 31 $240 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Dec 28 $119 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 26 $121 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 24 $1 $0 -33%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 23 $118 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 21 $120 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $121 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 18 $1 $0 -50%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $121 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 15? Dec 16 $121 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 14 $125 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $123 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 08 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 04 $123 $0 +0%
Will Ângela Maryah win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 02 $122 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 01 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 29 $122 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 28 $123 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $115 1h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $113 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $113 10d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 100¢ $110 17d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $112 19d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 21d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 21d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 24d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 27d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $112 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $117 114d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $111 118d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $111 123d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $115 126d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $115 128d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $115 132d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $115 140d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $116 141d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $116 142d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $117 143d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $117 144d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $113 145d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $113 146d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 146d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.13 · official $115.13 (match) · 226 history records